Caucasus http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com The World Affairs Blog Network Mon, 17 Aug 2009 08:17:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 en hourly 1 Georgia’s other IDPs http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/08/17/georgias-other-idps/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/08/17/georgias-other-idps/#comments Mon, 17 Aug 2009 08:17:28 +0000 Nikolaj Nielsen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/?p=42

Not even 30 km outside of Tbilisi and the first road sign to Sukhumi, Abkhazia’s de-facto capital, is a reminder of a legacy and war that continues to haunt the imaginations of IDPs who wish to return home and Georgians who wish to reintegrate the break away region. It is a sign of a conflict that refuses to relinquish and one that for the past few weeks appears to verge on the edge of explosion. Today, some 3600 Russian soldiers are deployed in Abkhazia. And President Vladmir Putin has said he intends to turn the territory into a fortress.

Just beyond the Sukhumi sign is a broad valley that stretches out far and wide. Isolated homes dot the green verdure of the slopes. Along the highway rusted power lines no longer in use hang by the wayside – also reminders of another era when Soviet industry and might dictated terms that Georgians are no longer willing to accommodate. And rightly so. On the horizon, one can make out the white peaks of distant mountains and on the zenith of nearby hill stands a Soviet era statue overlooking the patches of farmland that many still work by hand. This land carries an ancient history and life is anything but easy.

Most of the Georgians displaced by the August 2008 have since returned to their homes, attempting to rebuild their lives amid growing anxieties and lingering threats. But 220,000 to 247,000 ethnic Georgians displaced by the conflicts in the early 90s remain in limbo, unable to rejoin their former homes in Abkhazia. Some have settled in abandoned warehouses and hospitals in Zugdidi, a Georgian border town near Abkhazia, and others in Tbilisi and Kutaisi. Some just survive on paltry government stipends while others complain of receiving no benefits or help whatsoever.

Just before the August 2008 war, I spoke to several young Georgian IDPs in Tbilisi who had all fled Gali, a troubled district in Abkhazia, during the short but bloody two-week conflict in 1998. During that period, two-thirds of all the homes in Gali were set ablaze when Georgian partisans tried to liberate the area according to Thea Galdava of the Caucasian House, a centre for cultural relations in Tbilisi.

“We have the same history,” says Nino Kilanava referring to the Abkhazians she left behind as a child. Nino had just graduated and was working as a human rights and conflict resolution trainer when I spoke to her. “We grew up together. There isn’t a family that doesn’t have a relative who is Abkhaz. Living in Tbilisi is not difficult but we don’t have a choice.”

Reconciliation with her former neighbors and friends in Abkhazia ends when the discussion of independence is brought up. For these young IDPs, Abkhazia belongs to Georgia and while they have visited the break-away region since the 1998 conflict, fear keeps them from returning on more a permanent basis “If one Abkhaz dies then five Georgians will die. Yes, we are still afraid of the Abkhazians.” So far, around 45,000 ethnic Georgians have returned to the Gali district in Abkhazia but under conditions where poverty and lack of opportunity squeeze out any sense of normalcy.

Indeed, the security situation in Gali before the August war was anything but stable. The drive from the Inguri bridge to Sukhumi passed through war ravaged buildings, gutted from both fire and artillery shells. The hate that burned down those buildings are like wounds that refuse to heal. Aside from a number of cows walking on the road and the occasional Russian MC vehicle, the area appeared completely isolated and deserted. But people are here. For those Georgians still living in Gali, the situation has remained as ever - precarious and dangerous. Few are willing to speak but those who did wished to remain anonymous.

“Gali Georgians have no hope, no rights, so why don’t they just return to Georgia? Because ultimately they are not welcomed. Georgia sees their return as a failure to retain Abkhazia,” says Salla Nazarenko, journalist and project leader at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in Tbilisi.

In 2007, the Georgian government had adopted a State Strategy on IDPs to help integrate them without baring their eventual return to their homes. But according to IDMC, the Strategy has yet to be implemented and was reformulated after the August 2008 war.

In Tbilisi, the young IDPs seem to have retained some hope that their lot will somehow improve. Their solution for the end of this conflict is dialogue and understanding with the help of the international community.

“It is important that we continue to meet, to have dialogue, and forget the conflict. The government must follow through with the policies,” says Nino. But then she adds, only if Abkhazia relinquishes its hold and returns it to Georgia.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/08/17/georgias-other-idps/feed/ Ten Months On http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/06/16/ten-months-on/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/06/16/ten-months-on/#comments Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:00:55 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/?p=33 The BBC reports today from South Ossetia that not much has been done for the South Ossetians whose homes were destroyed or damaged in last August’s war.  The Georgian minority long ago fled or were forced out.  The South Ossetians are left totally dependent on their protectors in Moscow — who were quick ten months  ago to recognize South Ossetia’s “independence,” but much slower to deliver material aid.

Several points find unfortunate reflection ten months on.  Last August, presidential candidate John McCain pronounced that “We [Americans?] are all Georgians” and vowed that as President he would help Georgia withstand Russian pressure.  Obama, while resolute in supporting Georgia, was more measured in his rhetoric.  Now today Senator McCain trained his sights southward, criticizing President Obama for not being more vocal in support of the beleaguered Iranian opposition.

The problem with vigorous rhetoric is that those who employ it often get carried away and wind up in the politically untenable position of promising more than they can deliver.  Or, in the case of Iran  today, stern public admonitions from a U.S. President would only give Iran’s rulers ammunition to use in their propaganda war against the opposition.  Obama was wise to realize that.

One other reminder.  In the long run, Moscow plays her cards unsentimentally.  Russia need not rush to follow military intervention with civilian assistance in South Ossetia.  The Ossetians have nowhere else to go.  Besides, the money can be used better in Central Asia, paying off the Kirghiz leadership for their agreement to cancel the U.S. lease on a Kirghiz air base.  That’s change Moscow can believe in.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/06/16/ten-months-on/feed/ No Blooming Rose http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/04/14/no-blooming-rose/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/04/14/no-blooming-rose/#comments Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:46:03 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/?p=28 Georgia may have once been America’s darling in the Caucasus, but no more.  As pressure mounts from within on Georgia’s young President, Mikhail Saakashvili, the political dynamics outside the country seem ever less favorable.  First there was the world economic crisis, reducing trade and foreign aid.  Then there was the lukewarm attitude toward Georgia on the part of Europe, prompted by Russia’s efforts to isolate Tbilisi politically.  Now, an Obama administration focused on Turkey and its fragile rapprochement with Armenia serve to steer attention away from Georgia to nearby countries with less chaotic internal affairs.  Last August, John McCain and Joe Biden vied to prove themselves and their respective tickets the better champion of the stalwart Georgians.  Now the bloom is off Saakashvili’s “Rose Revolution.”

Russia has reportedly redoubled its efforts to weaken Georgia from within, but it may be pushing on an open door.  Saakashvili’s unpopularity appears to be rising even without Moscow taking a direct hand.  If Georgia descends further into political uncertainty, Moscow will be the beneficiary — just as it is in Ukraine, home to the fading Orange Revolution.  Before Russia, no stranger herself to revolution, can capitalize on the internal weaknesses of her former territories, she must address her own internal weaknesses.  Weakened economic and political institutions across a broad stretch of southern Eastern Europe — from Moldova to the Caucasus — are not a harbinger of democratic spring, but fragility and possible upheaval.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/04/14/no-blooming-rose/feed/ In the news… http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/02/09/in-the-news/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/02/09/in-the-news/#comments Mon, 09 Feb 2009 22:09:51 +0000 Cassandra Clifford http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/?p=17 Russia faces 'systemic threat’ from extremism: Medvedev
President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia faced a “systemic threat” from extremism and urged security chiefs to be on alert for possible unrest linked to the economic crisis.The comments came amid continued violence in parts of Russia's historically restive North Caucasus…

Plouffe to Donate Speaking Fee to Pro-Democracy Groups
President Barack Obama's former campaign manager intends to give away the fee he received from a paid private speech he made Monday in the oil-rich but authoritarian nation of Azerbaijan.

HR Commissioner starts official visit to Georgia The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Thomas Hammarberg, starts today a week-long special visit to Georgia in order to review the current status of implementation of the six principles for urgent human rights and humanitarian protection.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/02/09/in-the-news/feed/ Charter Politics http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/01/12/charter-politics/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/01/12/charter-politics/#comments Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:27:38 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/01/12/charter-politics/ With the signing last Friday of a U.S.-Georgian “Charter on Strategic Partnership,” the difficult politics of the Caucasus enter a new phase in several critical respects. First, with respect to the Georgian-Russian relationship, it signals a clear determination by Saakashvili government to develop a security relationship with the West, even if the prospect of NATO membership is a distant one.  Saakashvili hailed the document, which was signed in a brief ceremony at the State Department, as “definitely a step forwards towards the Euro-Atlantic space.”  Russian media alternately sounded alarms and dismissed the document’s seriousness, but they clearly took note.

Georgia, for now at least, is charting a westward course, which Russia must take note of, and has. Second, with respect to Georgian-U.S. relations, it lays down a marker.  Georgia will regard it — rightly or not — as obligating the incoming Obama administration to give special consideration to Georgia.  No security guarantees are indicated but a sense of obligation is implied.  It will be important, to say the least, for the Obama Administration to clearly communicate with Georgia — and Russia — how far that obligation goes.  As the conflict of last August proved, miscalculation has deadly consequences.

Finally, with regard to future U.S. policy toward NATO and NATO expansion, Secretaries Gates and Clinton will need to put the new Charters (the one with Georgia as well as the one signed with Ukraine before Christmas) in a clear context.  Does the Obama Administration desire NATO enlargement along Russia’s sensitive southern border?  The answer to this question will have profound implications for relations with Russia at a time when Washington needs Russian cooperation on Iran and frigid Europeans have little appetite for annoying their main supplier of natural gas.

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]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/01/12/charter-politics/feed/ Mixed Signals http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/25/mixed-signals/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/25/mixed-signals/#comments Thu, 25 Dec 2008 16:44:57 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/25/mixed-signals/ What is it about the Caucasus crisis, now submerged below the sightline of international attention, that we need to remember as we close out 2008?

For one thing, recall that now there are Russian troops in South Ossetia, where there were none last August.

Second, consider that soon there will be no observers from the OSCE in South Ossetia, where there were observers before.

Finally, take note that the lack of a coherent Western response to circumstances in the Caucasus has meant that Washington has moved forward alone to negotiate broad security agreements with Tbilisi and Kyiv, creating an awkward policy environment for the incoming Obama Administration.

Readers of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal know that over the last two months there have been repeated and contradictory accounts as to what happened in South Ossetia on the evening of August 7th.

Much in these accounts hangs on the credence given to a British OSCE observer, Ryan Grist, whose reports and comments had the effect of strengthening the Russian version of events.

Although he now says his comments were misinterpreted, Grist faults the Georgian military and government for a "disproportionate" response to incidents that occurred in and near South Ossetia leading up to August 7th.  In the same manner, other observers fault Putin's Russian military for its own disproportionate response following the Georgian one.

It is almost pointless to debate whose actions were more disproportionate or provocative.  The Western response, whether via political sanctions or rhetoric, has been ineffectual.  In fact, rather than press for a return to the status quo ante, NATO has returned to political dialogue with Putin's Russia while Russia has effectively blocked the only appropriate mediator , OSCE , from returning to the disputed area.

This is not to say that the Caucasus risks erupting into violence again any time soon.  But the danger is that the lesson learned — by Russia and her immediate neighbors — is that a consistent Western response cannot be counted on.  Russia can declare territories beyond its own borders to be independent states, place its own troops there, and the West, after strenuous objections, will do nothing.  Here's how the NYT quoted the U.S. Ambassador to NATO last week:

The United States ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, said on Friday, "We signaled our unhappiness with Russia using military force to invade Georgia and change borders by force of arms, yet we also signaled a desire for a cooperative relationship with Russia."

The question is, which “signal” is the one that is likely to be recalled as Russia and her neighbors consider their future relations?  If in 2009 Georgia and Ukraine are not offered a closer relationship with NATO, if the lingering message is that countries in the region have no recourse but to accept Russian demands, then the legacy of 2008 will be more insecurity for Russia's “near abroad.”

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/25/mixed-signals/feed/ The Truth is Out There http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/02/the-truth-is-out-there/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/02/the-truth-is-out-there/#comments Tue, 02 Dec 2008 18:24:17 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/02/the-truth-is-out-there/ Those who have been following the dueling versions of what happened in South Ossetia last August can find the latest installment of The Truth in today's Wall Street Journal.  In it, Mikheil Saakashvili attacks “misleading reports” by an OSCE observer who was in South Ossetia on August 7.  It was those reports, you may recall, that led the New York Times essentially to accept this version of reality, according to which the Georgians first attacked Russians in South Ossetia, and not the other way around.  President Saakashvili now lists a number of prior “provocations” by Russia that — he claims — left him with no other choice but to initiate a frontal assault on South Ossetia on August 7 — an assault that had disastrous consequences for Georgia.  Read for yourself and decide.
With Russian troops now withdrawn from Georgia proper (but with South Ossetia and Abkhazia now part of Russian “space”), the truth of what happened on August 7, and the days leading up to it, may be less important than the conclusions drawn by states neighboring Russia and by NATO itself.  Is NATO membership for Georgia (and Ukraine) more or less likely?  The significance of the conflict may finally come to be understood as the end of meaningful security partnership between Russia and the West.

Meantime, there are more such flashpoints waiting to erupt and, for the world, the lesson is that the longer they are left unaddressed, the greater the likelihood that they will lead to unintended consequences.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/12/02/the-truth-is-out-there/feed/ The Guns of August http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/10/01/the-guns-of-august/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/10/01/the-guns-of-august/#comments Thu, 02 Oct 2008 00:39:07 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/10/01/the-guns-of-august/ As we pass into October, what has happened to the Guns of August? Those who recall Barbara Tuchman's famous book about the origins of WWI must remember the uncanny way that Europe gives rise to conflict in late summer. In Georgia — or what used to be parts of Georgia — the guns are silent now, but is peace at hand in the Caucasus?

Surveying the scene along these former ramparts should give us pause.

As the New York Times reports today, 200 European Union peacekeepers have arrived in Georgia, one of the provisions set forth in the EU-brokered ceasefire. But — surprise! — the Russian military is hampering their entry into the so-called buffer zones on the Georgian side of the borders of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russian troops remain in these buffer zones, well beyond the contested regions and well within the territory that all parties — even the Russian Federation — acknowledge to be part of Georgia. Where the Russian troops are, no other "outsiders" are welcome.

As Moscow has enforced its will, the international community — not to mention Tbilisi — has appeared impotent. So, you say, it serves those hotheaded Georgians right. After all, didn't they start the conflict on August 7th, just as the world was distracted by the start of the Olympic games in Beijing? After all, wasn't Russia merely reacting in defense of Russian citizens living in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, crossing into these lands to stop a "genocide" that Georgian forces had already begun?

Surprise, once again. The latest reports show again — and convincingly — that, on August 7th, the Russian guns were primed and ready, Russian forces ready and massed for attack, and compliant Russian media embedded among the troops. This was well before the Georgians, provoked by cross-border fire from within South Ossetia, succumbed to the Russian trap.

We can be thankful that the guns are silent, but we should not be reassured. Russia has concluded that it can work its will in its "near abroad." With so many ethnic Russians residing in these border countries, it is a simple and emotionally compelling act to manufacture a grievance that leaves Russia no choice but to intervene, lest there be another "genocide."

This is well-worn territory in Europe. Hitler's Germany had "no choice" but to help the Sudentendeutsch so victimized by Czechoslovakia in the fall of 1938. Serbia's Milosevic had "no choice" but to rush to the aid of minority Serbs living in Kosovo in the summer of 1989. With the United States distracted by its long election campaign, and world staggering from the turmoil in financial markets, it will not take much for Russia to find another grievance close at hand.

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/10/01/the-guns-of-august/feed/ Georgia at the Brink http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/26/georgia-at-the-brink/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/26/georgia-at-the-brink/#comments Tue, 26 Aug 2008 23:09:03 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/26/georgia-at-the-brink/ The head of Georgia's Parliament, David Barakidze, says his country is being targeted for “regime change — by economic means,” and is appealing to the United States and other countries for major economic assistance.

In an interview from Denver, where he is lobbying leading delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Barakidze said Russian forces had severely damaged Georgia's roads and port facilities during the recent conflict and had planted mines and other explosives near oil pipelines that continued to threaten oil shipments across Georgia to Turkey.

“Twenty per cent of Georgia's economy is foreign direct investment,” Barakidze told me. “Without foreign confidence (in Georgia's economy) within a few months we could be a failed state.”

Besides appealing for emergency foreign assistance, Barakidze said Georgia is calling on foreign governments to restrict the travel and foreign activities of Russia's business elite.

Listen to the interview below:

Listen to the interview below

]]> http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/26/georgia-at-the-brink/feed/ Redlines http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/24/redlines/ http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/24/redlines/#comments Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:13:03 +0000 Mark Dillen http://caucasus.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2008/08/24/redlines/ Now that the bloodshed has stopped in the Caucasus, constructing a new policy approach for the West is imperative.

Western, Georgian and Russian sources all agree on the following:

  • Russian forces have largely, but not completely, left Georgia proper. They remain in Georgia in what has been called a "new administrative border" buffering South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They also remain within South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in numbers greater than before the outbreak of full-scale conflict on August 7.
  • The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has dispatched a small number of peacekeepers to the region, but is reporting less than full cooperation from the Russians, who have not allowed OSCE into the areas that they control.
  • Diplomatic contacts continue, but there are few if any signs of progress. The tit-for-tat declarations from NATO Headquarters and from Moscow make clear that NATO-Russian cooperation is on indefinite hold.

In the American political arena, there is a sense of bipartisan dissatisfaction with the current status quo. There are a few conservatives (e.g., Buchanan ) and more liberals who decry the rhetoric coming out of the White House and State Department and the McCain campaign for being too inflammatory. There are more conservatives (Krauthammer ) and a few liberals who criticize the NATO and US for not taking more resolute action. So far, at least, there's not much difference between the way that McCain and Biden express themselves on the issue.

Those would have the US and NATO do more have few ideas beyond freezing Russia's entry into the WTO and proceeding with the anti-missile system in Europe. The experts at the Heritage Foundation argue that NATO should proceed with Membership Action Plans (MAPs) for Ukraine and Georgia, but how can Georgia join NATO before it controls its own territory?

It was Saakashvili's goal to reassert Georgian sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now, however, it is Georgian sovereignty over the rest of the country that is diminished.

400px-baku_pipelines.jpg

Meanwhile, if there is a "redline" for the West in Georgia, it is probably an oil pipeline , Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan , which passes just 30 miles south of the Georgian capital. The 1,000-mile pipeline pumps one million barrels of Caspian oil per day, tracing a carefully constructed detour around Russian-controlled territory and territorial waters. Only now the new Russian "border" is closer than it was on August 7 , apparently by a dozen miles or so. And it is the Russians who seem to be calling the shots , literally.

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